Suzhou Electric Appliance Research Institute
期刊號: CN32-1800/TM| ISSN1007-3175

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基于風險評估和成本分析的變壓器維修策略研究

來源:電工電氣發(fā)布時間:2019-05-17 13:17 瀏覽次數(shù):779
基于風險評估和成本分析的變壓器維修策略研究
 
周博
(國網(wǎng)湖北省電力有限公司隨州供電公司,湖北 隨州 441300)
 
    摘 要:針對電力變壓器檢修管理中,單一的風險模型和成本模型不能同時考慮到安全性與經(jīng)濟性要求,提出一種基于風險評估和成本分析的維修策略。以風險理論為基礎,結合設備故障概率和故障可能導致的資產(chǎn)及系統(tǒng)損失,評估變壓器運行風險值;針對風險評估結果,通過引入ALARP 準則劃分風險可接受等級,判斷是否需要檢修工作。對于經(jīng)濟性指標,利用全壽命成本理論對變壓器壽命周期內(nèi)各成本要素進行劃分、量化計算,再以最小年金成本為判據(jù)確定設備現(xiàn)齡是否在其最佳壽命周期內(nèi),并在綜合考慮電力變壓器的運行風險與當前役齡的基礎上,制定出兼具安全性與經(jīng)濟性的維修策略。實際案例表明,此維修策略可行。
    關鍵詞:變壓器;維修策略;風險評估;全壽命周期成本;ALARP 準則
    中圖分類號:TM407     文獻標識碼:A     文章編號:1007-3175(2019)05-0012-05
 
Research on Transformer Maintenance Strategy Based on Risk Assessment and Cost Analysis
 
ZHOU Bo
(Suizhou Electric Company of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co., Ltd, Suizhou 441300, China)
 
    Abstract: In the maintenance management of power transformers, considering that a single risk or cost model can’t take into account the safety and economic requirements, this paper proposed a maintenance strategy based on risk assessment and cost analysis. Based on the risk theory, the operational risk value of transformer was evaluated according to the equipment failure probability and the possible loss of assets and system. In allusion to the results of risk assessment, the ALARP criterion was adopted to classify the acceptable level of risk to determine whether the maintenance work was needed. For economic indicators, this paper divided and quantified those cost elements in the life cycle of transformer through life cycle cost theory, and the minimum cost was used as the criterion to judge whether the current service age of transformer was at its best in the life cycle. On the basis of comprehensively considering the operation risk of power transformer and its current service age, this paper worked out the maintenance strategy with both security and economy. The actual case shows the feasible of this maintenance strategy.
    Key words: transformer; maintenance strategy; risk assessment; life cycle cost; ALARP criterion
 
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